I so appreciated the hearty chuckle from my friend Jeanne when I told her about the book, The Black Swan, and how the author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, describes the Black Swan in his “turkey graph” (my term for the graph - Taleb calls the graph “one thousand and one days in history”).
So, what is this graph? Well, take one turkey and feed him every day for one thousand and one days to get him ready for Christmas. The amount of food the turkey gets every day is just about the same and he’s fed twice a day at almost the same time. The graph will be fairly flat with a few small, insignificant ups and down for the amount of food he gets… but it is just about a straight line for a thousand days. And then the surprise happens – he gets the chop and is plucked and dressed for the Christmas table.
Significantly, there is absolutely nothing in this view that would have prepared the turkey for this surprise (black swan). Every day he got fed and things progressed along really nicely. This view really begs the question of why we always/mostly base our predictions (share prices, oil prices, sales forecasts, interest rates, life events etc) on historical data?
(NB: I don’t mean to reduce the essence of this amazing book to this one graph – but it sure as hell describes the Black Swan and how blinkered we can be. I recommend this book to everyone – give yourself a little treat and buy it)
Wednesday, 17 September 2008
Saturday, 6 September 2008
So, who wants a proper job?
At lunchtime today I am dropping my daughter Lisa, at the airport. She is off overseas; firstly to compete in the 24hr Rogaine World Champs taking place in Estonia, and secondly to spend a bit of time in the UK with friends. You can read about the Rogaine World Champs on her blog: http://adventurelisa.blogspot.com/2008/09/rogaining-world-champs-estonia.html
Lisa is an adventure sports journalist and I thought I would tot up the countries she has been to since 2000, either reporting on events or participating and then writing the articles afterwards.
So, in no particular order: North America – East and West Coast – a few times, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Patagonia a couple of times, Costa Rica, England, France Switzerland, Russia, Borneo, New Zealand, Hawaii, Singapore, Zambia, Mozambique, and Namibia. And now Estonia and at the end of the year she will be taking an invitation team to Abu Dhabi.
She is one person who has successfully turned something she loves (running and adventure racing) into a job that has taken her to some really exotic places. In between all the travel and sports events she has written for various magazines and managed to remain employed with a non-profit organisation.
My friend Chris often asks if Lisa has a “proper job” yet ie. 9 to 5 *grin*. But seriously, given all the exciting things she does and gets paid for – if this was you, would you opt for a proper job?
Lisa is an adventure sports journalist and I thought I would tot up the countries she has been to since 2000, either reporting on events or participating and then writing the articles afterwards.
So, in no particular order: North America – East and West Coast – a few times, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Patagonia a couple of times, Costa Rica, England, France Switzerland, Russia, Borneo, New Zealand, Hawaii, Singapore, Zambia, Mozambique, and Namibia. And now Estonia and at the end of the year she will be taking an invitation team to Abu Dhabi.
She is one person who has successfully turned something she loves (running and adventure racing) into a job that has taken her to some really exotic places. In between all the travel and sports events she has written for various magazines and managed to remain employed with a non-profit organisation.
My friend Chris often asks if Lisa has a “proper job” yet ie. 9 to 5 *grin*. But seriously, given all the exciting things she does and gets paid for – if this was you, would you opt for a proper job?
Tuesday, 19 August 2008
Super Heroes
Last year, our Springbok Rugby Team had just about every South African glued to the TV cheering them on at the World Cup final - which they won. The build up of our team prior to the World Cup was an amazing marketing exercise. The team was turned in super heroes. Even the non-rugby fans knew who they were. They were in the papers, and not just the sports section, there was a bit of drama about the coach, there was a bit of drama about the players….but at the end there was a team that would not do anything else but go to the World Cup and win. No one was going to mess with them. The Sasol advert on TV had the team morphing into super heroes with extraordinary powers. There was so much hype – I don’t think these guys even thought about losing!
So what happened with our Olympic Team? There certainly was not a lot of hype over them. Perhaps there was something on Super Sport, but there wasn’t a heck of lot on SABC - although there have been flashes of some of the athletes in a rather weak advert. And they sure haven’t been made out to be super heroes.
Oscar Pistorius managed to get a huge amount of publicity prior to the Olympics. He made world headlines with his plight. He spent a lot of time fighting various boards for admission to the able bodied Games. Thousands of people were saying “Ag Shame” he should be allowed. The people who wanted him excluded, because of the blade advantage, were seen as baddies, meanies and all sorts of things. Oscar has an amazing PR machine in place. Larger than life images of him on the side of multi story buildings, Powerade ads on TV, stories galore in popular magazines, even a modelling assignment in Cape Town – he is all over the place
But here’s a thing. Whilst this PR machine was on the go and boards were sitting to decide his fate, he wasn’t in training and he wasn’t anywhere near a qualifying time. And nor did he have a chance of achieving a qualifying time. Then there was a big public discussion that maybe he should be in the relay team, but he would have to run first in case he injured another runner and this debate went on for a while taking up media time.
But, he wasn’t close to qualifying for the team (it will probably take another 2 – 3 years of training) but he sure hogged a lot of pre-Olympic media time and attention.
Our actual Olympic athletes got just about zero.
And what about Natalie du Toit? She is disabled, qualified for the team and quietly got on with her training – and now she has performed more than admirably in her able bodied race. And prior to the race she has been the darling of the foreign press. They have love her in Beijing. She is our real super hero but we seem to have ignored her.
So what happened with our Olympic Team? There certainly was not a lot of hype over them. Perhaps there was something on Super Sport, but there wasn’t a heck of lot on SABC - although there have been flashes of some of the athletes in a rather weak advert. And they sure haven’t been made out to be super heroes.
Oscar Pistorius managed to get a huge amount of publicity prior to the Olympics. He made world headlines with his plight. He spent a lot of time fighting various boards for admission to the able bodied Games. Thousands of people were saying “Ag Shame” he should be allowed. The people who wanted him excluded, because of the blade advantage, were seen as baddies, meanies and all sorts of things. Oscar has an amazing PR machine in place. Larger than life images of him on the side of multi story buildings, Powerade ads on TV, stories galore in popular magazines, even a modelling assignment in Cape Town – he is all over the place
But here’s a thing. Whilst this PR machine was on the go and boards were sitting to decide his fate, he wasn’t in training and he wasn’t anywhere near a qualifying time. And nor did he have a chance of achieving a qualifying time. Then there was a big public discussion that maybe he should be in the relay team, but he would have to run first in case he injured another runner and this debate went on for a while taking up media time.
But, he wasn’t close to qualifying for the team (it will probably take another 2 – 3 years of training) but he sure hogged a lot of pre-Olympic media time and attention.
Our actual Olympic athletes got just about zero.
And what about Natalie du Toit? She is disabled, qualified for the team and quietly got on with her training – and now she has performed more than admirably in her able bodied race. And prior to the race she has been the darling of the foreign press. They have love her in Beijing. She is our real super hero but we seem to have ignored her.
Tuesday, 12 August 2008
My computer shop
Yesterday I took my new funky red (albeit unusable) keyboard back to my local computer equipment shop. When I told the guy at the counter I wanted to return it, he said "no problem, would you like to exchange it or have a refund?". There was no hassle at all.
I mentioned that I really needed a new keyboard but this one that my daughter had got for me was OK for typing a small amount but I spend too much time as it is behind my keyboard without having to battle with pressing keys down hard! The keyboard was one of those rubber things that you can fold up - looks great but not so practical. He said he quite understood and led me off to the rack with keyboards.... we chose a really nice one, plain and simple and practical. He gave some good advice, was very pleasant, and I didn't feel rushed or pressured.
So, I walked out of the shop with a keyboard, a new mouse, a new USB hub and a really cool printer/scanner combo. Not bad for a returned keyboard!
An aside: I really did need all those things - I have put off getting a new mouse for ages and my daughter is moving out of my home office and taking her equipment with her. So, I do need my own printer etc. My idea of emailing documents for printing to Lisa met with not an awful lot of humour *grin* .
I mentioned that I really needed a new keyboard but this one that my daughter had got for me was OK for typing a small amount but I spend too much time as it is behind my keyboard without having to battle with pressing keys down hard! The keyboard was one of those rubber things that you can fold up - looks great but not so practical. He said he quite understood and led me off to the rack with keyboards.... we chose a really nice one, plain and simple and practical. He gave some good advice, was very pleasant, and I didn't feel rushed or pressured.
So, I walked out of the shop with a keyboard, a new mouse, a new USB hub and a really cool printer/scanner combo. Not bad for a returned keyboard!
An aside: I really did need all those things - I have put off getting a new mouse for ages and my daughter is moving out of my home office and taking her equipment with her. So, I do need my own printer etc. My idea of emailing documents for printing to Lisa met with not an awful lot of humour *grin* .
Wednesday, 6 August 2008
Best Soup
Because I have some hectic deadlines today, I thought I would heat up a cup of soup and shlurp it at my desk. In between spoonfuls I Googled "Best Soup". Firstly, there are 1.3 million results for Best Soup (amazing) and this little gem (the one in the middle) popped up on the second page:
SARS
I have always had a healthy respect for SARS and I have always submitted my returns on time, coughed up the dosh when asked and generally been a model citizen in this regard.
Last year when we could register for e-filing, I left it a bit late and try as might, I couldn't register because of my name. I tried every conceivable combination of "d'Oger de Speville" you can think of but still got the message - number does not match surname. So, due to the time constraints and my desire to be a goodie two shoes, I downloaded the form, filled it in, printed it off, attached all the documentation I could think of to substantiate the information I had supplied, got in my car and zipped off to my local SARS office.
SARS are in an exceptionally grim building in Germiston. Goodness knows which school that architect went to. The queue was out the front door and round the corner but moving at a reasonable pace. So I stood in it cursing myself for not registering and sorting out my electronic name. Once inside, it is not too bad. The staff has really tried to jolly the place up with posters showing exotic holiday locations and little waterfall things in the corners - even a couple of little fairies perched on artificial rocks. I handed in my form and got a stamp to prove it and went home.
In April this year, I received a query from them. They returned my completed form with ticks all over the place and one big cross - reminiscent of homework assignments. And they returned all my documentation with a big note that they didn't need and if I read the form properly I would see that they hadn't even asked for it. So, I figured out what I had done wrong filling out the form, got in my car and headed off to the SARS office again. I also took all my documentation so that I could show the assessor how I had just put something in the wrong place.
The SARS people in my local are really nice, friendly and helpful - and always have been. I met with a pleasant young woman who listened to my story, grabbed all my papers, went through them and then pushed all this supporting documentation back to me. She corrected my error online and re-submitted my return. And gave me a little lecture about only submitting supporting documentation if they needed it and I should read the form thoroughly before sending it in. I told her that "I got the message" - and clutching the wad of paper and a receipt, left the office.
So yesterday, I received this large letter from SARS - they only seem to ever use A4 size stationery. And guess what, they have asked me to submit all my supporting documentation.
Last year when we could register for e-filing, I left it a bit late and try as might, I couldn't register because of my name. I tried every conceivable combination of "d'Oger de Speville" you can think of but still got the message - number does not match surname. So, due to the time constraints and my desire to be a goodie two shoes, I downloaded the form, filled it in, printed it off, attached all the documentation I could think of to substantiate the information I had supplied, got in my car and zipped off to my local SARS office.
SARS are in an exceptionally grim building in Germiston. Goodness knows which school that architect went to. The queue was out the front door and round the corner but moving at a reasonable pace. So I stood in it cursing myself for not registering and sorting out my electronic name. Once inside, it is not too bad. The staff has really tried to jolly the place up with posters showing exotic holiday locations and little waterfall things in the corners - even a couple of little fairies perched on artificial rocks. I handed in my form and got a stamp to prove it and went home.
In April this year, I received a query from them. They returned my completed form with ticks all over the place and one big cross - reminiscent of homework assignments. And they returned all my documentation with a big note that they didn't need and if I read the form properly I would see that they hadn't even asked for it. So, I figured out what I had done wrong filling out the form, got in my car and headed off to the SARS office again. I also took all my documentation so that I could show the assessor how I had just put something in the wrong place.
The SARS people in my local are really nice, friendly and helpful - and always have been. I met with a pleasant young woman who listened to my story, grabbed all my papers, went through them and then pushed all this supporting documentation back to me. She corrected my error online and re-submitted my return. And gave me a little lecture about only submitting supporting documentation if they needed it and I should read the form thoroughly before sending it in. I told her that "I got the message" - and clutching the wad of paper and a receipt, left the office.
So yesterday, I received this large letter from SARS - they only seem to ever use A4 size stationery. And guess what, they have asked me to submit all my supporting documentation.
Tuesday, 22 July 2008
Killer quote
Malema still keeps the great debate raging about what he meant...or what he thinks he meant. Enough already. Here is a fantastic quote - which should be adopted by our politicians.
There are many causes that I am prepared to die for but no causes that I am prepared to kill for. -Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi (1869-1948)
And by the way, I get daily quotes from Word-a-Day. Go to this website and register - get a new word every day and a great quote.
There are many causes that I am prepared to die for but no causes that I am prepared to kill for. -Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi (1869-1948)
And by the way, I get daily quotes from Word-a-Day. Go to this website and register - get a new word every day and a great quote.
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