The Turkey Graph

I so appreciated the hearty chuckle from my friend Jeanne when I told her about the book, The Black Swan, and how the author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, describes the Black Swan in his “turkey graph” (my term for the graph - Taleb calls the graph “one thousand and one days in history”).

So, what is this graph? Well, take one turkey and feed him every day for one thousand and one days to get him ready for Christmas. The amount of food the turkey gets every day is just about the same and he’s fed twice a day at almost the same time. The graph will be fairly flat with a few small, insignificant ups and down for the amount of food he gets… but it is just about a straight line for a thousand days. And then the surprise happens – he gets the chop and is plucked and dressed for the Christmas table.

Significantly, there is absolutely nothing in this view that would have prepared the turkey for this surprise (black swan). Every day he got fed and things progressed along really nicely. This view really begs the question of why we always/mostly base our predictions (share prices, oil prices, sales forecasts, interest rates, life events etc) on historical data?

(NB: I don’t mean to reduce the essence of this amazing book to this one graph – but it sure as hell describes the Black Swan and how blinkered we can be. I recommend this book to everyone – give yourself a little treat and buy it)

So, who wants a proper job?

At lunchtime today I am dropping my daughter Lisa, at the airport. She is off overseas; firstly to compete in the 24hr Rogaine World Champs taking place in Estonia, and secondly to spend a bit of time in the UK with friends. You can read about the Rogaine World Champs on her blog: http://adventurelisa.blogspot.com/2008/09/rogaining-world-champs-estonia.html

Lisa is an adventure sports journalist and I thought I would tot up the countries she has been to since 2000, either reporting on events or participating and then writing the articles afterwards.

So, in no particular order: North America – East and West Coast – a few times, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Patagonia a couple of times, Costa Rica, England, France Switzerland, Russia, Borneo, New Zealand, Hawaii, Singapore, Zambia, Mozambique, and Namibia. And now Estonia and at the end of the year she will be taking an invitation team to Abu Dhabi.

She is one person who has successfully turned something she loves (running and adventure racing) into a job that has taken her to some really exotic places. In between all the travel and sports events she has written for various magazines and managed to remain employed with a non-profit organisation.

My friend Chris often asks if Lisa has a “proper job” yet ie. 9 to 5 *grin*. But seriously, given all the exciting things she does and gets paid for – if this was you, would you opt for a proper job?